COMMENTARY: War With China To Defend Taiwan Is NOT Just
Executive And Legislative Branches Need To Understand How The Just War Theory Will Not Apply To A Defense Of Taiwan
July 14, 2025 Update: A link to a Responsible Statecraft article explaining how an actual Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be difficult and impractical has been added since the original publication of this commentary.
July 15, 2025 Update: Link to Responsible Statecraft article was moved and call to action was updated to reflect sending this op-ed to state legislative officeholders.
Introduction
Back in early April, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a series of drills around Taiwan, including live-fire tests. The drills were conducted following a speech by the Taiwanese President, Lai Ching-te, in which he laid out 17 strategies to push back against hostility from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Some analysts believe China is very likely not going to actually “invade” Taiwan the way Russia has with Ukraine. However, China is more likely to use a blockade to cut off trade and travel into and out of Taiwan, and they would still be able to achieve reunification that way. China plans to re-unify with Taiwan by 2027, and use force if necessary.
During his presidency, former President Joe Biden pledged six times that he would use military force to defend Taiwan if they were invaded or attacked by China. Meanwhile, President Trump has personally signaled less commitment to defending the island nation in the event of a Chinese attack (although his Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, claimed during a speech in late May in Singapore that “President Trump has also said that Communist China will not invade Taiwan on his watch”). Trump’s reluctance was also evident during his campaign for president last year.
Following the bombings of Iran’s nuclear facilities last month, some foreign policy analysts are speculating that the strikes send a “stern” message to China to NOT invade Taiwan. Whatever one makes of all of these developments vis-à-vis President Trump’s approach to a prospective China-Taiwan conflict, ALL members of Congress (the branch responsible for declaring war, as prescribed in Article I Section 8 of the Constitution) and the President MUST recognize that a war against China to defend Taiwan is NOT a just war. They also need to recognize the likely outcomes of what such a war will result in.
What Is A Just War?
According to BBC Ethics, there are six conditions to determine whether or not a war is just, and all six of them must be met: “(1) The war must be for a just cause. (2) The war must be lawfully declared by a lawful authority. (3) The intention behind the war must be good. (4) All other ways of resolving the problem should have been tried first. (5) There must be a reasonable chance of success. (6) The means used must be in proportion to the end that the war seeks to achieve.” Of course, various Christian denominations have different opinions on what constitutes a just war, or whether or not war is actually ever justified. Regardless, where there is agreement with the Just War Theory, there are specific conditions that must be realized. Of the six conditions listed above, the three that will certainly/most likely NOT be satisfied are conditions 2, 4 and 5.
Reasonable Chance Of Success
First and foremost, a recent war game performed by the House China Committee indicated that the U.S. would deplete its inventory of precision-guided missiles within one week of fighting China to defend Taiwan. Additional war games show the U.S. losing to China due in large part to their “anti-access, area denial” (A2/AD) doctrine, as well as their vast missile arsenals and superior air/space-based recon capabilities. Moreover, China has the geographical advantage, as Taiwan is approximately 100 miles away. Even in war games that show the U.S. winning, the U.S. still suffers devastating losses, which threaten its position as a dominant global power for years to come.
Second, China has such an advanced industrial base that it can build new warships 232 times FASTER than the United States. They also have the capability to destroy or disable our satellites and shut down our electrical grid with massive cyberattacks.
Finally and most importantly, China has the capability (via nuclear weapons) to carry out electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks on our electrical grid and our other utility infrastructures. This would be far more damaging than cyber attacks, because electronic and electrical equipment will be fried, whereas with a cyber attack, an adversary could opt to turn the power back on, and damage to electronic and electrical equipment would be minimal. Any nationwide blackout of the electrical grid will kill 9 out of 10 Americans within one year.
Other Ways Of Resolving The Problem
At the bare minimum, the U.S. should make clear to President Lai Ching-te that it will NOT defend Taiwan in the event of a conflict. The U.S. could also impose sanctions or additional tariffs on China if they were to attack Taiwan. However, the best non-military solution would be a pre-emptive negotiated settlement. David Pyne, Editor of the Real War Newsletter, has mapped out a diplomatic proposal for averting a conflict between China and Taiwan in the first place. The main article is long, but he goes in depth with the proposal under the subtitle “The Diplomatic Option to Avert War with China”. The upshot is that the U.S. would negotiate a unification agreement between China and Taiwan that functions like the European Union, in that it recognizes that Taiwan is part of China, but Taiwanese citizens still have their basic freedoms. It was originally floated by former Taiwanese Vice President Annette Lu. No top leaders in China have voiced any opposition against the proposal. Additionally, the first steps the United States would have to take in the negotiating process would be a withdrawal of all of its troops currently stationed in Taiwan and opposition to any actions by the Taiwanese government toward independence from China.
Lawfully Declared War
A war with China to defend Taiwan would likely not even have an authorization from Congress. In a recent speech, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson stated that Congress has not engaged in a declaration of war since WWII. Also, during his speech in Singapore, Defense Secretary Hegseth said the U.S. would be ready to defend Taiwan if called upon by his boss, President Trump. He didn’t say anything about a Congressional declaration of war. Moreover, even in the event of a Chinese blockade around Taiwan, all offensive military actions, whether such actions are short-term limited strikes or long-term full scale wars, will need a Congressional declaration of war. Indeed, President Trump did not have a congressional authorization for war with his bombings in Iran.
Summarization Of Evidence
Because of America’s glaring and yet-to-be rectified vulnerability to cyber/EMP attacks, along with China’s superior military and industrial capabilities, a war to defend Taiwan is utterly unwinnable. There has also not yet been any effort by the Trump Administration to negotiate a unification agreement between China and Taiwan. Finally, Congress has no appetite for declaring war against another nation. These three factors mean a war with China isn’t just. There may be compelling reasons for a just cause and/or good intention to defend Taiwan. However, remember that if even ONE of the six just war conditions outlined above cannot be satisfied in the face of a potential conflict, the war isn’t just.
Perhaps the strongest argument in favor of defending Taiwan is protecting their semiconductor industry. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) is investing in production capacities here in America, with two more fabrication plants (“fabs”) to be operational by 2030. While this will take time to materialize, time will be afforded with the aforementioned implementation of the Chinese union agreement with Taiwan. Intel is also constructing two semiconductor fabs in Ohio, one of which is slated to open by 2031 and the other by 2032. Also, there is no use for advanced semiconductors in this country once they have been rendered inoperable following an EMP attack. A conflict between China, Taiwan and the United States is also likely to result in the destruction of the Taiwanese fabs. If the U.S. is going to destroy Taiwanese fabs to prevent them from falling into the hands of the CCP, that would be an automatic disqualification of condition #6.
It should be noted that even if China would never accept the unification agreement outlined above, nuclear, cyber and EMP attacks were non-factors, and Congress was willing to hold a robust debate in consideration of a war declaration against China, such a war will NEVER be winnable. As previously stated, Taiwan is within 100 miles of the Chinese mainland. Also, in a recent podcast, Lt. Col. Daniel Davis mentioned he spoke with a former Pacific fleet commander, who told him that a defense of Taiwan will automatically result in the sinking of two aircraft carriers in the South China sea at the outset of a conflict. Davis also touches on China’s superior missile capabilities and acknowledges that they have been anticipating and preparing for a war with the U.S. on this very occasion for decades. Remember also that most war games show the U.S. losing, even without factoring in cyber, nuclear and EMP attacks.
Call To Action
Please send the information in the above sections to President Trump and your members of Congress! The President can be reached via email, or on social media via X (formerly called Twitter) and Truth Social. Your representatives in Congress can be found from the home page of the House of Representatives site while your senators can be found here. Feel free to share this op-ed with them on social media as well.
Please also get involved with passing Defend The Guard in your state. This proposal will prohibit the release of National Guard forces into active duty combat unless Congress has first declared war. A war with China will likely require heavy usage of National Guard resources. While most states are out of session for the remainder of the year, the legislative bodies in many of them can call special sessions. Even if your state only allows the governor to call a special session, please urge him/her to call one for Defend The Guard and share this op-ed in the process! Please also share this op-ed with your state legislative officeholders so they can be informed about this issue when contemplating Defend The Guard. Again, China aims to reunify with Taiwan by 2027, so, at best, there are only two more legislative sessions to get this bill passed in state legislatures (without special sessions). Arizona came the closest to passing the bill through its entire legislature this year. The only reason it didn’t go all the way is because the state’s Speaker of the House, Steve Montenegro, chose NOT to advance it to the full house floor for a vote (and as such, he has a -30 point score on my scorecard for the state). Unless he turns it around next year, Montenegro MUST be defeated in the state’s next primary election cycle!
Finally, please sign my petition to avert war with China and show additional support for this crucial mission!
Previous Commentaries
https://fightthewarmachine.substack.com/p/missouri-governor-calls-special-legislative
https://fightthewarmachine.substack.com/p/commentary-speaker-of-the-michigan
Previous Scorecards
https://fightthewarmachine.substack.com/p/scorecard-of-the-week-ending-053125
https://fightthewarmachine.substack.com/p/scorecard-of-the-week-ending-06072025
https://fightthewarmachine.substack.com/p/scorecard-of-the-week-ending-06282025
This article, like the vast majority coming from the US, assumes that Taiwan is likely to be "invaded" by China. Except for US provocation, China has no reason to do so. Republic of China has long been considered a devolved province of China and part of it under the "One China" policy, not only by China but by ROC itself, the US, and the vast majority of UN states. China could have "invaded" ROC at any time since the CCP's alliance with KMT in 1923, but it was an ally and supporter of Sun Yat-Sen then and is ROC's major trading partner now. It has extensive social and personal links with it aside from economic ties. Increasing hostility and the Western narrative of separateness are entirely the result of US political provocation, a game plan used by the CIA around the world to aggravate and separate. China's only interest in invading would be to remove US influence, much as Russia's was in Ukraine. Failure to address this sort of problem results in Syrian situations.